Gaining exposure to the strengthening US economy in 2012

There is growing evidence now that the US economy is slowly firming up and coming out of recession.

Good time therefore to buy into companies which will benefit from the improving US outlook.

Here are some recommendations that look credible to us:

Daimler
Has 35% of it's business exposed to the US markets and car sales have previously been one of the worst performing sectors, so much room for growth. VW and BMW have also been strongly tipped but Daimler look the most strongly recommended. None of these by the way have listings on the London market !!

WPP (WPP @ 730.00)
Global advertising and media giant has large exposure to the US

Vodaphone ( VOD @ 176.95) 
Has 40% exposure to the US

Ahold (AMS:AH @ 10.04)
A Netherlands based retail group operating supermarkets, liqueur stores and drug stores across Europe and US.

Schroders (SDR @ 1,366.00)  
Assett Management and Private Banking

A bit harder then to pick out companies which will benefit from the US economic recovery and a number of these are not on the London Stock Exchange hence you have to watch for currency fluctuation too.

We'll keep looking for any other decent looking recomendations .......

Getting into Banks in 2012

The other major under performing sector in 2011 worth a look is Banks.

We are tracking four banks who are well down over the year hence with any improved confidence and stability across US and Europe you would expect an improving share price in these stocks.

As far as diversification is concerned Barclays have 44% of their business in the UK, RBS have 64% and Lloyds have 100%.

HSBC are the most diversified of the four and would give a better global spread into the emerging far east economies but have probably fallen the least hence whilst less risky will have the least potential upside to the share price.

So tracking these four banks with a notional £1,000 in each :
Barclays (BARC) - 189.05p
HSBC (HSBA) - 501.00
Lloyds Banking Group  (LBG) - 27.68
RBS (RBS) - 21.71

You can track the current value of these holdings here :
http://www.dunover.com/investments/index.php?topic=1336.0 

Getting into Commodities in 2012

Vedanta

Glencore

Commodities were one of the worst performers in 2011 due to concerns over US, Europe and the slowing growth in China and India.

But with confidence improving particularly in the US economy it seems commodity companies seem to be jumping more than other sectors when the markets rise.

Beowulf Mining

Probably most attractive of the list below are Vedanta who are featuring in India, Glencore tipped by the Daily Telegraph for 2012 and Beowulf Mining another tip we have received but embroiled in licensing issues at the moment.

We are tracking ten companies with potential as follows:

Beowulf Mining (BEM) - 14.96p

BHP Billiton (BLT) - 2,014.00p

ENRC (ENRC) - 719.50p

Glencore (GLEN) - 401.70p

Premier Oil (PMO) - 394.5p

Randgold (RRS) - 7220.00p

Rio Tinto (RIO) - 3428.5p

Sound Oil (SOU) - 1.56p

Vedanta (VED) - 1027.00p

Xstrata (XTA) - 1043.00p

We can track the value of this on the website with a notional value of £1,000 in each stock gives a starting value of £10,000.

See the latest value of these stocks here:

http://www.dunover.com/investments/index.php?topic=1335.0

Where to make money in 2012

Lloyds Banking Group - Antonio Horte-Osorio

ARM Holdings -  Warren East

Premier Foods - Mike Clarke

Rolls Royce - Sir John Rose

Having listened to more share dealing predictions than you can shake a stick a few things are pretty clear. 

2012 will be another difficult year but there does seem to be some consistency in sectors that are viewed as under valued. Commodities, Technology, Banking and Engineering.  

Coupled with the need to re-balance the UK economy into things we do well and are still growing i.e. Technology and Engineering. 

Here are four British companies we at www.dunover.com are looking to invest in at some point:

Lloyds Banking Group

Must finally be the year for their recovery

ARM Holdings

Based in Cambridge Silicon Fell specialise in making components for Apple iPhones and iPads 

Rolls Royce

One of Britians great engineering companies looking to expand rapidly into emerging markets of India and China 

Premier Foods

Ok, in the embattled service sector. But Premier Foods are Britain's largest food manufacturer, have a new management team who have all bought heavily into the stock which is currently sitting at only 6p  

Dithering old Sir Win Bischoff at Lloyds

Sir Win was 70 on the 10th May this year and he’s talking about doing another 4 or 5 years at Lloyds.

Well given his performance over the last few weeks he’s beginning to look well past it.

Despite his key relationship being with Chief Exec Antonio he failed to notice his man going off the rails until Antonio pretty much broke "on the job" and had to leave the building for extended sick leave. 

Sir Win’s first move then to appoint Tim Tookey as Interim leader, a man who had already been paid off and starts his new job in February.

Then after a couple of weeks Sir Win totally spooks the markets by appointing a different interim “in case” Antonio does not come back in the time frame Sir Win had promised. 

It turns out his choice this time is David Roberts who 2 years ago left his job at an Austrian Bank due to ill health with heart problems, blimey !!

The same day Nathan Bostock the highly trumpeted new head of retail poached from RBS and friend of Antonio then announces he’s not coming so to counter that Sir Win announces to the City that Lloyds are in negotiations with George Culmer to be new Finance Director. To which his employer RSA immediately stated he is on a 12 months notice period.

Could Sir Win have handled this any worse. These issues are not that difficult in comparison to the complexities over branch sales, redundancies, tier 1 capital, Euro exposure etc. 

It’s time the Lloyds Board got focused and concentrated on getting the company out of this mess rather than dithering around. 

It looks to me that the dithering Sir Win needs to leave before his 71st birthday and take his top team with him. 

Whilst many Private Investors are losing their livelihoods through this mess the Lloyds Board just blunder on regardless. 

Next thing I’m going to be very interested in is what bonuses the Lloyds Directors award themselves for their performance this year. 

I’m struggling to see how this could possibly be regarded as anything other than abject failure on their part. 

David Cameron, over to you on that one !!! 

Buy troubled Bank of America, the share price goes up 25%, how can Buffett ever lose?

How can you lose as an investor if just the fact that you buy a share makes the market also buy it and sends the price up by 25%.

Such is the case with Warren Buffett and his $5 billion dollar purchase of shares in the struggling Bank of America.

It does send a tremendous message of confidence out to the World that the Worlds greatest analyst is buying big into Banks.

He was buying further into Wells Fargo Bank last week and is said to own 9.5 million shares in them.

Which makes us here at Dunover.com feel a whole lot better because thats exactly where we are. 

Heavily invested in Lloyds and also in RBS and convinced the Banks will recover from these rock bottom prices in the next year or two.

The only doubt in my mind being that Warren Buffet at 80 years old may have just lost his marbles ....

Warren Buffetts Eureka moment in the bath tub:

http://www.dunover.com/investments/index.php?topic=1278.0  

Steve Jobs, Sir Terry Leahy, Alan Parker are gone, where are the stars of the future

If you ever believed 3 individuals were their company than look no further than those above.

Steve Jobs resigns on health grounds and suddenly the supremacy of apple becomes a major doubt.

Sir Terry Leahy leaving Tesco sparks an exodus from his disappointed board members who were aspiring to the job.

Alan Parker turned around Whitbread with a simple but effective strategy built around Costa Coffee and Premier Inns. What hope for them now in the declining leaisure industry.

From an investing point of view I would have considered all 3 of those companies as great investments.

I love my apple Iphone, love shopping at Tesco's and love a trip to Costa Coffee.

However despite all that you feel you are looking for the next Steve Jobs, Terry Leahy and Alan Parker to invest in, not backing those companies that they have now left.

Warren Buffett may be heavily invested in Tesco's but I'm backing away from all 3 geat companies.

Better to spend time searching for the next generation of great businessmen building the great companies of tomorrow.

Any ideas then let me know, the Dunover.com investment fund is waiting for opportunities to invest ............